Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Review of The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

I just finished listening to an audiobook by Leonard Mlodinow titled "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives". It is an interesting book on how our lives is rule by chance. If one thinks about how the random events happen in their lives, for example, my parents were both from rural towns in the South, NC and VA but met in New York at the Savoy Ballroom and I am here writing about it. As for whoever wrote Ecclesiastes(if you agree with Bart Ehrman's Forged:Why the Author's of the Bible Are not who we think they are:) he states, Ecclesiastes was not written by Solomon, but a forgery, however the alleged forger got one thought right when he wrote in Ecclesiastes 9:11 "I have seen something else under the sun: The race is not to the swift or the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favor to the learned; but time and chance happen to them all." (NIV) This is probably the best one sentence summary of a book. I think the best part of the book was his advise for overcoming confirmation bias in Chapter 9 in which he states: 1. Understand that random events too produces patterns 2. Question your perceptions and theories 3. Look for evidence that we are wrong, as we spend time looking for evidence we are right. He states in his conclusion "What I've learned, above all, is to keep marching forward because the best news is that since chance does play a role, one important factor in success is under our control: the number of at bats, the number of chances taken, the number of opportunities seized. For even a coin weighted toward failure will sometimes land on success. Or as the IBM pioneer Thomas Watson said, "If you want to succeed, double your failure rate."The anonymous author of Ecclesiastes 9:10 states something similar "Whatever your hand finds to do, do it with all your might, for in the grave, where you are going, there is neither working nor planning nor knowledge nor wisdom. " This book made me ask the questions, does randomness rules or are things determined? Or Is determinism an illusion and randomness reality? or Do things start off random and then determinism kicks in? Think about it.